Northern Ethiopia is growing increasingly tense two and a half years after the Tigray peace deal. Eritrea appears intent on sowing instabili...
Northern Ethiopia is growing increasingly tense two and a half years after the Tigray peace deal. Eritrea appears intent on sowing instability in the region. A new report traces how separatists have quietly rearmed.
Reports of troop movements and sporadic clashes in northern Ethiopia have emerged in recent months, feeding concern that a fragile calm could soon collapse. The region is still reeling from the brutal two-year civil war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal government forces — a conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives before it ended with the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022.
"We can't plan anything at the moment," a woman in Mekele, the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, told DW. "We're just trying to survive. A new war could break out tomorrow." She described a climate of fear that has gripped many residents. "Life has become incredibly expensive. We need a peaceful solution so we can return to work and rebuild our lives."
During that war, Eritrean troops supported Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's campaign against the TPLF. But critics warned at the time that peace would remain fragile without Eritrea at the negotiating table. President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled Eritrea for decades, was notably absent from the talks in the South African's administrative capital, Pretoria.
Now, growing fears of renewed violence point towards Eritrea's involvement.
Internal division in Tigray
Another destabilizing factor is the political turmoil within Tigray itself. The once-dominant TPLF has fractured after internal power struggles — a vulnerability Eritrea could potentially exploit.
Following the split, General Tadesse Werede, former commander of the defeated Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), was appointed head of the Tigray interim government in Mekelle. He has urged caution against misinformation and vowed, "There will be no war and no provocation from Tigray's side."
On the other side of the divide is TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael. His faction has been accused of cooperating with Eritrea — a claim it strongly denies. Debretsion has called for a political resolution grounded in the Pretoria agreement: "We urge the international community to pressure the Ethiopian government, its agents, and allies to refrain from preparing for war."
Despite these reassurances, fear is spreading among civilians.
"People are withdrawing their money from banks and stockpiling essentials like oil and teff [an Ethiopian cereal]," a resident of Mekele told DW. He called on both TPLF factions "to step aside — or to use their influence to work with the central government to resolve the crisis and prevent war."
Eritrea's interest in a fragmented Ethiopia
A full-scale inter-state war may be unlikely, but proxy conflicts are a real possibility, said Gerrit Kurtz, Horn of Africa expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a Berlin-based think tank.
"Eritrea benefits when Ethiopia is weakened — when it's internally fragmented and beset by local conflicts," Kurtz told DW. "That's why the internal crises we've seen over the past few years — many of which are supported, or at least exploited, by Eritrea — serve its strategic interests."
Observers say Eritrea has trained armed groups inside Ethiopia — including, reportedly, the Fano militia in Amhara region. In March, Fano fighters clashed with Ethiopian federal troops in a two-day battle that, according to Addis Ababa, left more than 300 militia members dead.
Arms, resources and influence
Eritrea has a long and contentious history with Ethiopia. After colonial rule ended, the country was absorbed into a federation with Ethiopia in 1952, and later forcibly annexed — a move that sparked a decades-long independence struggle. Eritrea finally broke away in 1993, costing Ethiopia its only direct access to the sea. Since then, Eritrea has become one of the world's most repressive and isolated regimes under Isaias Afwerki. In 2010, the United Nations imposed an arms embargo on the country.
According to a new report by the US-based watchdog group The Sentry, Eritrea has used its involvement in the Tigray conflict to strengthen its position significantly. "We identified two clear patterns," said Charles Cater, lead investigator for The Sentry, in an interview with DW. "First, the systematic looting of Tigray during the war — factories were dismantled and moved across the border. Everything of value was taken to Eritrea."
The second pattern, he said, was illicit trade: Eritrea profited from smuggling gold, sesame, cultural artifacts, and even people from Tigray. The resulting foreign currency is believed to have helped fund Eritrea's ongoing operations in Ethiopia.
Another pivotal moment came in 2018, when Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace agreement, ending years of open hostility. Prime Minister Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the breakthrough — but Afwerki was left out, despite the deal helping to lift the UN arms embargo against Eritrea. The Sentry also documented how Eritrea subsequently bought weapons, including from Russia.
In response, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed the report as a "fabricated narrative" meant to scapegoat Eritrea.
Abiy's calculations and border tensions
The Eritrean military is reportedly strengthening its positions near the Tigray border and may have advanced up to 10 kilometers (6 miles) into Ethiopian territory, according to The Sentry. Both sides had previously agreed to a new border alignment during the 2018 thaw in relations.
The Pretoria Agreement stipulated the withdrawal of all non-federal forces from Tigray — including Eritrean troops. It is now up to the Ethiopian government to find a political solution, both with Eritrea and with the divided TPLF, noted SWP's Gerrit Kurtz.
"Abiy's strategy is to keep all domestic rivals weak enough that they can't unite against him. That means sometimes aligning with certain factions, while repressing others. But it's a high-stakes game," Kurtz said.
Ethiopia is scheduled to hold national elections next year, and analysts warn that Abiy could use the Tigray crisis as political leverage. Since 2023, he has also revived calls for Ethiopia to secure its own access to the sea — a move that has already fueled diplomatic tensions with Somalia and led some to fear a potential military incursion into Eritrea.
For now, Abiy has publicly reiterated his commitment to peace.
Azeb-Tadesse Hahn, Eshete Bekele and Million Haileselassie contributed reporting
This article has been translated from German
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Tagged: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Conflict, Peace and Security, Legal and Judicial Affairs, East Africa
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