Full impact of US e-commerce duty change may take a year, DHL says

The removal of import duty exemptions by the United States for e-commerce shipments may take up to a year to fully affect consumers, a time...

The removal of import duty exemptions by the United States for e-commerce shipments may take up to a year to fully affect consumers, a timeframe similar to that observed following the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union, according to the CEO of DHL Express.

John Pearson suggests that consumers have yet to fully grasp the additional costs they may incur. He recalls the aftermath of Brexit, stating, "When Brexit happened, I was receiving calls from customers even one year later, saying the duties charged on their orders must have been incorrect." Pearson made these remarks during an interview in Johannesburg, a key hub for the global courier service in Africa, a region identified as a significant growth market. DHL Express is a division of the logistics conglomerate, DHL Group, headquartered in Bonn.

Pearson anticipates a delayed realization of the policy's impact, explaining, "We would be naive to think, in a month, we would know everything about (the impact), because customers are only starting to realise the little trinkets they bought were charged certain duties because of, for example, their metal content."

The US government eliminated the "de minimis" tariff exemption on May 2nd for Chinese products valued at US$800 or less, a measure subsequently extended to all other nations on August 29th.

Pearson noted that this policy change resulted in a significant decrease of nearly 80% in shipments from Chinese online shopping platforms to the US, particularly affecting low-cost fast-fashion retailers like Temu and Shein.

DHL, a major logistics partner for these companies, had been transporting approximately 400 tonnes of their goods daily from China to the US using a fleet of 17 widebody aircraft in the final quarter of the previous year.

According to Pearson, the impact on DHL Express has been "relatively modest" thus far, as its exposure to the US market is smaller compared to its US-based competitors. E-commerce-related activities account for roughly 20% of the group's revenue.

In response to reduced shipments to the US, Chinese e-commerce merchants and other companies, such as UK-based fast-fashion brands Boohoo and PrettyLittleThing, are actively pursuing new markets in Europe, including the UK, and the Asia-Pacific region.

"We see trade going in different directions, the most noticeable one being from China to other parts of Asia-Pacific, which in turn creates concerns about price dumping," Pearson added.

However, the prospects of Chinese e-commerce platforms could be further complicated by the UK government's review of its GBP135 (US$180) de minimis import exemption, with a potential proposal to abolish it anticipated in the November budget.

The European Union also intends to eliminate duty-free treatment for online orders valued at less than Euro150 (US$175) from 2028. Several countries, including the Netherlands, Romania, and France, are considering implementing small parcel customs processing fees in 2028 or earlier.

Pearson stated that DHL's business-to-business e-commerce operations were "rather unaffected" by the US duties.

To improve efficiency, DHL has deployed nearly 1,000 employees to manage customs clearance and has introduced an online service for customers to pay duties. He also commented that "what used to be one-minute clearance is now closer to a 10-minute process".

DHL has set a goal to increase its revenue by 50% by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 6%. Africa is expected to play a crucial role in achieving this objective.

DHL Group announced an investment of over Euro300 million by 2030 to accelerate growth across its courier, freight forwarding, and supply chain operations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express sub-Saharan Africa, explained that the investment is intended to capitalize on the increasing demand for courier services driven by the growing trade between Africa and China in sectors such as fast-fashion, agriculture, electric vehicles, and renewable energy.

"E-commerce, especially fast-fashion imports into Africa from China, has become stronger after the US tariffs because China is recalibrating to find different markets," Heymans said.

Official data indicates that China's overall trade with Africa increased by 19.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of the year.

To better serve the needs of Chinese customers, DHL's African business units have brought in nearly 50 personnel from the group's China operations, according to Amadou Diallo, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding for Middle East and South Africa.

"Our management team visits China every three months to meet customers and engage with government officials," Diallo stated. "We aim to help Chinese firms in key sectors like e-commerce, new energy, life science and healthcare expand their markets globally."