Advanced predictive markers are now available to determine a child's susceptibility to specific diseases after birth, along with their f...
Advanced predictive markers are now available to determine a child's susceptibility to specific diseases after birth, along with their future height, skin color, and other characteristics. Hospitals that receive genetic testing data about embryos from us have not yet consented to provide predictions regarding physical traits, which is why we are not offering these services.
Dr. Steven Xu, co-founder of Genomic Prediction, a company focused on embryo genetic testing and a specialist in genetic modeling, made these comments during an interview with the 8th WEEKLY BIZ. The technology used by genetic testing firms, frequently referred to as "modern-day fortune-tellers" for their ability to predict children's futures, is developing quickly. This implies that, as shown in the science fiction movie *Gattaca*, it is already possible to forecast a child's characteristics based on genetic data before birth or to lower the risk of certain diseases. In the film, parents choose their children's intelligence and appearance, shaping their social status and future careers. For instance, unlike the main character Vincent, who is seen as genetically inadequate, his brother is born as a "perfect child" after eliminating genetic factors related to "early baldness," "nearsightedness," "alcoholism," "drug addiction," and "obesity." As one of the film's lines states, "You couldn’t have such a child even with 1,000 natural pregnancies." Is an era of "super babies" about to arrive? WEEKLY BIZ explored the current state of genetic testing technology and the key ethical debates surrounding it by speaking with global startups and experts from both within and outside the country.
◇From Risk of Cancer to Probability of Obesity
We introduce a 'Embryo Health Score' to indicate the likelihood of different diseases occurring. This data assists parents and healthcare professionals in choosing the most suitable embryo," said Dr. Xu. "Following an analysis of millions of DNA base sequences within an embryo, we assess the risk of significant conditions such as breast cancer, prostate cancer, and schizophrenia," he added. "We perform embryo testing to ensure the child is born and develops in the healthiest way possible.
Even if an embryo is not implanted into the mother's uterus, examining it can indicate the child's potential risk for cancer. The company states that individuals who developed from healthier embryos tend to live 5 years longer than those who were randomly implanted and raised to adulthood.
In recent times, with the growing number of couples facing infertility and an increasing preference for in vitro fertilization (IVF), preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) for assessing embryo quality has become more common and advanced.
Initially, PGT-A, which examines for chromosomal irregularities (normal: 46 chromosomes, 23 pairs), is carried out approximately 340,000 times each year in developed nations such as the U.S. and Europe, as per industry data. Choosing embryos that do not have chromosomal issues enhances the chances of successful implantation and lowers the likelihood of miscarriage, which explains the widespread use of this test.
Additionally, with the progress of genetic testing technology, PGT-P, which forecasts a child's likelihood of developing diseases beyond basic health assessments, is quickly advancing. This test can predict not only single-gene disorders but also intricate conditions such as obesity and mental health issues that are affected by environmental influences and daily habits. Dr. Xu stated, "If the risk score is high, we determine the disease risk—like that of a heart attack—as 5 to 10 times greater than average."
◇ Investing Tens of Thousands of Dollars to Choose 'Healthy Embryos'
As genetic testing that forecasts a child's future health becomes more widespread, the number of parents willing to pay for it is also rising quickly.
Parents are obligated to strive their hardest to give their child the best possible start in life. One aspect of this responsibility is preventing illness, such as through immunizations. In this context, genetic testing serves as yet another form of disease prevention.
Dr. Rafal Smigrodzki, a neurologist from the United States, was the first person globally to have a child following polygenic disease testing (PGT-P) five years back. In May 2020, he chose the embryo with the lowest likelihood of developing serious conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer from four IVF embryos and welcomed his daughter Aurea. During an interview with Bloomberg, he stated, “I believed genetic testing was something parents should consider.”
As word spread that genetic testing could lower a child's risk of inherited diseases, an increasing number of U.S. parents are investing thousands to tens of thousands of dollars in these tests. Genomic Prediction stated that by January, it had delivered genetic risk scores for 1,600 embryos to 420 international clients. Another genetic company, Nucleus Genomics, is also reported to have provided embryo genetic analysis services to thousands of clients.
High-profile business leaders are also taking an interest. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) stated that OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, and Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, have had genetic testing done during the birth of their children.
The demand for preimplantation genetic testing is rising quickly. As per Research Nester, a U.S.-based market analysis company, the worldwide market is projected to grow from $858.88 million (around 1.26 trillion Korean won) this year to $2.07 billion by 2035. Dr. Xu stated, "With roughly 2.5 million IVF treatments conducted globally each year, the number of procedures is anticipated to surge to 5 million by 2030. As a result, the genetic testing market could reach approximately $10 billion per year."
Even though fertility rates worldwide are decreasing, the industry thinks this will not have a major impact on growth. Dr. Xu stated, "The age at which women get married is becoming later, and governments are paying more attention to addressing infertility. No matter the drop in birth rates, IVF procedures are expected to rise quickly, along with related genetic testing."
Investments in affiliated startups are also on the rise. Orchid Health, established in 2019, has secured $16.5 million to date, with backing from Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
◇A World Creating 'Perfect Children'
The problem is that genetic testing technology is not only forecasting a child's health risks but also expanding into non-medical characteristics such as intelligence and physical appearance. Herasight, a U.S.-based genetic company, is exploring technology that can predict not just genetic disorders but also certain non-disease related genetic traits.
Dr. Jonathan Anomaly, the ethics and policy advisor at Herasight (formerly a professor at Duke University), stated in a WEEKLY BIZ video interview, "We are creating technology that can forecast characteristics many individuals care about, including genetic scores for intelligence, height, and body mass index (BMI). In the future, more advanced physical traits such as muscle mass will also be predictable." This suggests a future where "ideal children" could be engineered is drawing near.
Spencer Moore, Herasight's statistical geneticist, stated, "The quantity of embryos and their genetic 'luck'—how effectively genetic combinations are shuffled—can expand parents' options. We possess top-tier research findings not only regarding disease risk but also on intelligence, providing us with strong predictive capabilities."
Nevertheless, some people claim that assertions regarding predicting intelligence are not supported by science and are simply promotional strategies. Xisha Gu, a statistical geneticist at Harvard Medical School, posted on X, "I wonder why they haven't revealed the research behind their IQ predictions. Are they trying to generate controversy to secure funding, using eugenics as a trendy term?" This suggests "noise marketing" to generate excitement.
Professor Kim Jin-soo from KAIST's Graduate School of Biological Sciences stated, "Although genetic factors affect a child's looks and intelligence, it remains uncertain which particular gene variations are involved. This area needs a careful approach, as it might turn into a 'modern superstition' presented under the guise of genetics." Professor Jeong Choong-won from Seoul National University's Department of Life Sciences noted, "We still have limited understanding of how genes interact to cause complex diseases. Although polygenic risk scores (PRS) hold statistical significance for large groups, their ability to predict outcomes for individual embryos decreases considerably."
◇Controversy Over ‘Modern Eugenics’
The process of choosing high-quality embryos using genetic testing is attracting interest not only for its technical precision but also as a "political and ethical powder keg." Opponents question how this approach is different from the eugenics policies of Nazi Germany, which aimed at racial purity. Eugenics, a pseudo-scientific concept developed by British scientist Francis Galton in 1883, suggested that human society could be "enhanced" through selective reproduction. Current efforts to apply advanced genetic screening in selecting embryos are seen by some as a return to "modern eugenics."
Gene modification, in addition to traditional selection methods, has already caused a significant reaction within the global community. In November 2018, Chinese scientist He Jiankui from the Southern University of Science and Technology revealed the birth of twin girls whose genetic material was altered to provide resistance against HIV. The worldwide scientific community condemned the act as "unleashing Pandora's box," and a Shenzhen court later sentenced him to three years in prison along with a fine of 3 million yuan, stating that "it violated ethical and medical boundaries."
Nevertheless, the ethical limits of selecting embryos through genetic testing are still not well defined. Opinions among the public regarding non-medical traits such as intelligence are split. A 2023 survey of 1,427 U.S. adults revealed that 36.9% favored intelligence-related genetic testing, 22.6% were undecided, and 40.5% rejected it.
Laws differ from one country to another. In South Korea, the Bioethics and Safety Act strictly bans genetic testing of embryos for non-medical reasons, permitting it only in cases of serious birth defects or chromosomal issues that have clear medical justification. Although the number of domestic infertility patients rose from 228,618 in 2020 to 300,401 in 2024, no controversies surrounding embryo genetic testing have emerged yet.
On the other hand, the U.S. does not have federal rules regarding embryo genetic testing or selection, as guidelines differ from one state to another. There is a range of expert views. Bardit Ravitzky, a former bioethicist from Montreal University, was criticized in The New York Times for stating, “We are already caught in genetic determinism. Technologies that suggest a child's future is genetically decided support this determinism.”
Nevertheless, some people believe that the response is excessive. Marcy Darnovsky, a science advisor at Nucleus Genomics and a professor of human genetics at the University of Michigan, stated, "Given that affluent children already have benefits in education and college admissions, it's difficult to view IVF and embryo selection as ethically different."
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