Morocco Faces Eighth Consecutive Drought Year - Key Updates

Morocco is moving closer to what specialists believe might signify a eighth straight year of dry conditions , as late autumn rains increase ...

Morocco is moving closer to what specialists believe might signify aeighth straight year of dry conditions, as late autumn rains increase worry among farmers and hydrology experts regarding decreasing water supplies and changing seasonal trends.

What we are aware of regarding the present season

Rainfall interruptions have continued until mid-November, with Meteorological services predicting isolated rain and thunderstorms in the High Atlas, Souss, northern coastlines, and some areas of the Sahara provinces, although specialists indicate that the overall trend involves later winters, extended summers, and less distinct seasons.

Agricultural consultant Riyad Ouchtitamentions that the changes have influenced planting schedules and decreased the areas under cultivation, which were already limited due to the financial pressures of recent years.

Hydrologists caution that Morocco is experiencing multiple stages of drought: starting with meteorological drought (insufficient rainfall), progressing to hydrological drought (reduced river levels and reservoirs), and moving towards soil moisture drought, which can deplete the land's fertility and complicate recovery efforts, making them more time-consuming and expensive.

Reservoirs have consistently remained at approximately one-third of their total capacity in recent years.A Carnegiea 2025 analysis indicated that Morocco had experienced its seventh straight year of drought, with reservoir levels decreasing and livestock populations declining. 

How rare is a drought that lasts eight years?

In the past, Morocco has experienced prolonged dry periods. According to the World Bank and academic research, the early 1980s marked one of the most extended and severe droughts, causing significant economic challenges and food shortages, followed by major occurrences in the early 1990s and during 2000–2001. 

What sets today apart is that these periods of drought are occurring more frequently and in conjunction with higher temperatures.

Seasonal predictions may still contain errors in either direction, as a few powerful Atlantic storms this winter could reduce the strain on reservoirs and soil without eliminating the accumulated shortages over the years.

It remains unclear if Morocco is experiencing an exceptionally prolonged dry period or transitioning into a new state of persistent dryness.

Climate studies support the second possibility. The IPCC evaluations and MedECC publications indicate that the Mediterranean and North Africa are experiencing warming approximately 20 percent more rapidly than the global average, with predictions of reduced winter precipitation, extended dry periods, and increased evaporation in the years ahead.

Drought duration simulated in the Mediterranean region North Africais projected to approximately double by the latter part of the century in high-emission situations.

It is still uncertain when consecutive dry years lead to permanent soil deterioration in critical river basins, when rural displacement increases, and to what extent the farming system can continue using a combination of desalination, water transfers, and usage control.

In real-world terms, "entering an eighth year of drought" involves three simultaneous challenges: farmers dealing with another season of postponed choices and increased uncertainty; water officials managing limited surface and underground water supplies while relying on more expensive new sources; and decision-makers working with mounting proof that this is not a temporary issue but a long-term drought aligned with climate forecasts.

How Morocco is responding

The government has started shifting from immediate crisis management to long-term adaptation measures. The national water plan anticipates approximately 14 billion dirhams in funding for expanding desalination projects, recycling wastewater, and moving water between different basins, aiming to generate an extra 1.7 billion cubic meters of water through desalination by the latter part of the decade. 

Officials are also enhancing regulations on groundwater and limiting the cultivation of water-heavy crops in dry areas, while aiming to safeguard agricultural earnings.

What remains unclear

Whether this season will mark the eighth consecutive year of drought remains uncertain, depending on rainfall during December and January, the period that establishes Morocco's agricultural standard.

Authorities state that isolated thunderstorms are insufficient to address underlying deficiencies, making the upcoming weeks critical for the 2025 farming season and the country's water safety.

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