China's Retail Sales Rise at Slowest Rate in Over a Year

China's retail sales increased last month at the slowest rate in more than a year, according to official figures released on Friday, und...

China's retail sales increased last month at the slowest rate in more than a year, according to official figures released on Friday, underscoring the challenges authorities face in addressing ongoing consumer pessimism.

The second-largest economy in the world has experienced slow domestic consumption since the conclusion of the Covid pandemic, as an extended debt crisis in the real estate industry continues to affect confidence.

Numerous economists suggest that China needs to transition to a growth strategy that prioritizes consumer spending over infrastructure development and exports, which have historically been the main contributors to economic activity.

Leaders are aiming for a five percent overall increase in 2025, a target that experts believe is still achievable even with a noticeable slowdown during the latter part of the year.

"Numerous external instabilities and uncertain factors persist, domestic structural adjustment pressures are substantial, and the stable functioning of the economy encounters many challenges," Fu Linghui, chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), stated during a press conference.

Retail sales increased by 2.9 percent year-on-year in the previous month, according to NBS data, which was slightly less than the 3 percent growth seen in September.

The person showed the most gradual growth since August of the previous year.

It also signified the fifth consecutive month of declining growth since the highest rate of 6.4 percent in May.

The decline in spending last month occurred as Beijing and Washington sought to alleviate a harmful trade conflict, with Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reaching a one-year pause in hostilities in October.

China's exports have generally shown strong resistance this year even amid Washington's tariffs, as reduced shipments to the U.S. were balanced by growth in other regions, especially Southeast Asia.

However, stimulating activity within the domestic economy has proven more difficult.

At a recent Communist Party meeting centered on economic strategy, officials stated the nation needs to "strongly enhance consumer spending."

Moody's Ratings cautioned in a report released this week that China's "domestic consumption might take time to recover."

Following last month's meeting, the report stated that the key focuses are "speeding up innovation in important technologies and strengthening local demand by making structural changes to income distribution and social welfare systems."

Factory slowdown

NBS data also indicated that manufacturing activity in October was below expectations.

Manufacturing output increased by 4.9 percent compared to the previous year, which is below a Bloomberg prediction of 5.5 percent and represents the smallest growth since August of last year.

"A major decline was driven by weaker external demand — export values and industrial sales for exports both dropped considerably," said Zichun Huang from Capital Economics in a note regarding Friday's data.

She stated that she anticipates the economy will stay sluggish during the next quarter," she added, noting that the recent trade agreement between Beijing and Washington "is not expected to offer significant respite.

The Chinese real estate industry has faced a financial crisis since 2020, following a long period of construction growth driven by swift urban expansion and increasing quality of life.

Data from Friday indicated that home values — a major indicator of wealth for Chinese households — kept falling.

New home prices declined compared to the previous year in 61 of the 70 largest cities monitored by the NBS during October.

"The real estate industry continues to cast a shadow over the general forecast," stated Sheana Yue, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics.

there is 'limited interest among policymakers in new housing incentives despite weakening real estate momentum,' she stated, noting that 'a nationwide recovery is still far off.'

Another concerning indicator for government officials is that fixed-asset investment fell by 1.7 percent compared to the same period last year.

The gauge moved into negative territory in September, declining 0.5 percent compared to the previous year.